Research Note

December 2023 The Ascension of Mavenir Told in an Alternative Rock Playlist Format

December 2023

Abstract

Our comments on Mevenir Analyst Day, held in November 2023.

Love music, here you go, tune in and listen while reading. As usual this time of the year, Stelyana and I attended Mavenir’s 2-day analyst event to get the pulse of the rising U.S. telecom software champion, and we were not disappointed. And to make it entertaining for our readers, our analysis is organized through an alternative rock playlist such that you can enjoy the music!

“Map of the ProblÉmatique” by Muse
We define the map of the problématique as the key developments that characterize our current telecom landscape:

  • The end of the 1st 5G rollout cycle creates a lull in the network equipment market.
  • Open RAN missed the 1st 5G cycle but is getting mature for the next cycle.
  • The lack of 5G monetization prompts communications service providers (CSPs) to cap their capex and reduce their capital intensity (CI) for some time to come. Example: Telefónica plans to decrease its CI below 12% from its current 14% through 2026.
  • Geopolitics leads to 2 spheres of influence: the West (the U.S. and its allies) and the East (China and its allies). As the West bans the Chinese vendors, the East diminishes the share of the Western vendors.
While this complicated landscape challenges large network equipment vendors, it offers a great opportunity for Mavenir: the upcoming 2nd 5G cycle combined with Chinese vendor replacement opens the door to open RAN, which at the same time becomes more mature for large scale deployments.

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