Téral Research's 1Q26 Wireless Infrastructure Market Report finds total RAN and core network sales up 2% year-over-year during the 5G-to-6G lull, forecasts a 4% CAGR through 2031 powered by a 6G surge beginning in 2030 — and sees no 6G core on the horizon.
The global wireless infrastructure market posted another quarter of stability in 1Q26, with total RAN and core network sales up 2% year-over-year (down 22% sequentially on normal seasonality), according to the 1Q26 Wireless Infrastructure Market Report from Téral Research. The result confirms the firm's call, first made in its 4Q24 report published in February 2025, that the market had returned to a normal pattern — a good sign during the lull between the 5G investment cycle and the coming 6G wave.
Stability is the story — and that's good news
Growth in 1Q26 was driven by 5G RAN — including open vRAN, which climbed to 9% of total RAN from 8% in 4Q25 — and by EPC/vEPC, fueled by upgrades tied to the continued predominance of 5G non-standalone (NSA) architecture. Standalone 5G keeps advancing steadily rather than spectacularly: seven new 5G SA networks went live in the quarter, bringing the global total to 92, versus 300 NSA networks. Excluding China, 5G SA core sales grew year-over-year.
Regionally, North America was the only region that did not record growth. China added 120,000 5G base stations during the quarter.
In this stable environment, the vendor ranking remains quasi-static. In RAN sales: Huawei #1, Ericsson #2, Nokia #3, ZTE #4, Samsung #5. In 5G core sales: Huawei #1, ZTE #2, Ericsson #3, Nokia #4 — though China's massive 5G connection footprint flatters the leaders, and removing China reorders the 5G core top three to Ericsson #1, Nokia #2, and Huawei #3. In commercial 5G SA core network footprint, Ericsson and Nokia are neck and neck.
2026 outlook: upgrades, rip & replace, and the software shift
For full-year 2026, Téral Research expects RAN slightly down year-over-year and 5G core up. Activity will center on 5G network upgrades — including 5G-Advanced — and RAN rip & replace programs (Bell, Telus, Deutsche Telekom) and expansions (Rakuten Mobile) incorporating open RAN, vRAN, and cloud RAN components.
The broader telecom capex picture remains murky, with an accelerating capex-to-opex shift. CSP software spend already accounted for 10% of total capex in 2024, and the hardware portion of total RAN sales will continue to decline as software rises.
The long view: a 6G surge from 2030, open vRAN past the 50% mark — and no 6G core
Drawing on its 20-year analysis of CSP wireless infrastructure footprint patterns, Téral Research forecasts a 2026–2031 CAGR of 4%, triggered by a 6G investment surge beginning in 2030. 5G is expected to remain flattish through 2027 and begin declining in 2028 as the early CSP adopters shift to 6G.
In the meantime, the bright spots are open vRAN and 5G core:
- Open vRAN will account for 55% of total RAN by 2031, up from 14.2% in 2026.
- 5G core will grow at a 10% five-year CAGR, while EPC declines at -43%. Chief drivers: fixed wireless access (FWA) — still the undeniable success story — followed by VoNR and network slicing, with RedCap (5G reduced capability) and non-terrestrial networks (NTNs) emerging.
Notably, Téral Research does not expect the development of a 6G core, for reasons detailed in its 6G Infrastructure Outlook report.
"The market is doing exactly what we said it would: settling into a normal pattern while operators digest 5G and prepare for what's next. The real transformation is structural — software eating into RAN hardware, open vRAN heading past half of all RAN by 2031, and a 6G cycle that will arrive without a new core." — Stéphane Téral, Founder & Chief Analyst, Téral Research
About the report
The 1Q26 Wireless Infrastructure Market Report provides quarterly market sizing, vendor rankings, and 2026–2031 forecasts across RAN (including open vRAN, vRAN, and cloud RAN), EPC/vEPC, and 5G core, with regional analysis covering North America, EMEA, Asia Pacific, and CALA.
Learn more or request pricing: https://teralresearch.com/report/1q26-wireless-infrastructure-market-report-4g-5g-6g-ran-core-network-analysis-398